FOREX WEEKLY REPORT

15 February – 19 February 2010

USD/JPY

This week started with a long holiday of Chinese New Year and also US market holiday for President Day on Monday. Volume was light during the holiday but the week was packed with risk event and US economic data. Greece problem, China move to hike bank reserve for the second time and a lack of clarity on the debt restructuring of government-backed Dubai World also give an impact to USD against JPY on Monday, where USD was a tad weaker at 89.98 on the JPY. But when a gauge of manufacturing in

New York state jumped in February to its highest level since October, and another report showed net overall capital inflow increased to USD 60.9 bio in December, data released on Tuesday, made USD rose 0.2% against JPY to 90.15. USD also rose 1.4% at 91.35 on Wednesday after stronger than expected US housing and industrial data and also minutes from The Fed January meeting showed policy makers saw a need to begin a program of asset sales in the near future and expect the economic recovery to continue.

On Thursday, there were a mix data on the US site, where an unexpected jump in weekly US jobless claims reduced demand for The USD, but in the other hand the government reported a higher than expected rise in January producer prices. This made the USD swung between gains and losses against other currency, but fell against the JPY after BOJ kept interest rates on hold and held off on new policy initiatives to 91.24. On the following day, after The Fed said the discount rate would be increased to 0.75% from 0.50%, made the USD hit its highest level in a month at 92.10 yen.

Forecast:

Market now waiting for US CPI figure due on Friday . USD/JPY forecast next week: 91.30-92.30

USD/IDR

The pair was opened at 9350 against rupiah on Monday Jakarta market. It eased earlier to 9340 before edged higher to 9357 toward the closing Jakarta market. Trading was thin as most Asian market was closed for the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, with the US market also away for President's Day holiday.

The following day, the USD/IDR movement confined within 9330-9350. Activity on the market was thin as some centers in Asia are still away for Lunar New Year. With JKSE in small positive  at last indication, the pair slipped to a little lower level during closing time. The pair rose for a second day on Wednesday. The pair traded below 9300 after almost a month hovering above that level. The local bourse also rose 0.88% after gaining 1.6% yesterday. The record shows that foreign funds bought more Indonesian equities than they sold in the past five trading days. International investors also increased their holdings of local bonds to 119.01 trillion rupiah from 115.02 trillion rupiah in January. On Thursday, The pair was opened at 9320, and going higher on USD's gaining against most currencies. During the day The rupiah lowered to 9328 before closing at 9321. On Friday, The pair opened at 9345 and traded on narrow range 9340-9365 before closing at 9350.

Closing market on February 19 , 2010 Jakarta market at 4.10 pm. on February 19, 2010 JSI : 2,554.376 (-5.658) USD/JPY : 91.71/91.73 Nikkei : 10,123.58 (-212.11) EUR/USD : 1.3508/1.3510

JGB 305 : 1.330 (0.015) USD/IDR : 9350

EUR/JPY : 123.94/123.99

Closing market on February 18, 2009 BTMU JIBOR 1 mo. : 7.25%

DJI : 10,392.90 (+83.66) BTMU JIBOR 3 mo. : 7.50%